https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/science/coronavirus-bayes-statistics-math.html
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist
Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you.
By Siobhan Roberts
Aug. 4, 2020
Updated 4:57 p.m. ET
“Observing early research in March about how the pandemic might evolve, they noticed that classic epidemiological models tend to use fixed parameters, or constants… But in reality, the reproduction number depends on random, uncertain factors: viral loads and susceptibility, behavior and social networks, culture and socioeconomic class, weather, air conditioning and unknowns. With a Bayesian perspective, the uncertainty is encoded into randomness.”